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|Lincoln winning against Douglas would have probably put him on track for 1864 rather than 1860. But then Douglas did run for president in 1860. Was he already a Senator when he ran against Lincoln in 1858? It is a very tough what if question. I think Seward would probably have won the nomination. I think the South would probably have won the war with Seward as President. Mainly because Seward was very outspoken in his views and tended to piss people off. Whereas Lincoln worked with and led people who didn't like him but had the same goal in mind...keeping the Union together. Lincoln was able to get these people to look past him and concentrate on the overall goal. Seward it is doubtful if he could have pulled that off.
Lincoln was just the right guy at the right time to lead America through this crisis. He had an iron will on keeping the country together. He never viewed Southerners as anything else but fellow Americans. He truly wanted a good peace...not one of vengeance.